बाजार समीक्षा
In the first half of 2021, the spandex market showed an overall upward trend. 40D और नीचे उत्पाद है the सबसे बड़ा वृद्धि. का का आधा वर्ष, the बाजार मूल्य का स्पैन्डेक्स 40D था 72,500 युआन/TON, A वर्ष-दर-वर्ष वृद्धि of 154.39%. में the पहला आधा का 2021, the औसत मूल्य का 40D स्पैन्डेक्स था 59053 युआन/TON, A वर्ष-दर-वर्ष वृद्धि का 102.22%. द मूल्य वृद्धि का स्पैन्डेक्स है मुख्य रूप से संचालित द्वारा आपूर्ति, मांग और लागत पीछे दृश्य, और परिवर्तन में आयात और निर्यात स्थिति है भी बढ़ाया मूल्य का स्पैन्डेक्स से a निश्चित सीमा।
1. आपूर्ति पक्ष
In the first half of 2021, the output of spandex was 395,000 tons, an increase of 14.16% over the same period last year. From the perspective of several major spandex producers, Huafeng Chemical, Taihe New Materials (Ningxia), Taihe New Materials (Yantai), and Xinxiang Egret are expected to put into production 40,000 tons, 30,000 tons, 15,000 tons and 35,000 tons respectively in the second half of 2021. Million tons. Huahai Spandex is expected to put into production 20,000-50,000 tons between 2021-2023, while Huafeng Chemical is expected to put into production 50,000 tons and 150,000 tons in 2023 and 2025, respectively. From the perspective of output and start-up, the overall start-up and output in 2021 will be at a relatively high level in recent years. In the first half of 2021, there will be no new production capacity for spandex. The domestic spandex production capacity is about 895,000 tons. The profitability of the factory is good, and the enterprises are more enthusiastic to start production. The output from January to June 2021 increased by 14.16% compared with the same period last year.
2. Demand side
In April, the market acceptance of high-priced spandex declined, and there was a slight downward trend. In addition, the upstream BDO, pure MDI and other raw materials fell from high levels, and practitioners were bearish on the weaving market in the future. There were many impacts on the market for spandex prices. However, at the beginning of May, the domestic spandex market price showed a slight upward trend. Approaching the end of May, the upward trend became more apparent. The price increase of spandex is inseparable from the demand-driven support, the shortage of spandex fine denier in the market, and the low inventory of factories drive its price to further increase. At the same time, with the continuous improvement of the living consumption level, the pursuit of the quality of textile clothing is also improving. Consumers have more and more demand for sports and leisure clothing, and their requirements for clothing functions are getting higher and higher. The amount of spandex used in all kinds of textiles is also gradually increasing. According to the market trend, stretch fabrics are selling well recently, and some old varieties and imitation silk fabrics without superior conditions will be eliminated by the market. It is precisely for this reason that spandex, as a raw material for stretch fabrics, has no alternative competition in the market, and the factory offers Continue to increase. Secondly, the current global epidemic has not yet been fully controlled, and the demand for spandex for epidemic prevention materials such as masks, protective clothing, and medical bandages will also increase in the future.
3. लागत विश्लेषण
लागत है संचालित द स्पैन्डेक्स बाजार से वृद्धि तेजी से. द फ्यूज कि प्रभावित मूल्य का स्पैन्डेक्स पर द शुरुआत का 2021 था मुख्य रूप से संचालित द्वारा द लागत पक्ष. द घरेलू बीडीओ बाजार में द अपस्ट्रीम का स्पैन्डेक्स रिबाउंडेड दृढ़ता से बाद नीचे बाहर में दूसरा आधा का 2020 और दौड़ा से ए उच्च स्तर में द अतीत 12 वर्ष%2सी साथ एक वृद्धि का लगभग 300% में द अतीत छः महीने. , द उदय है तो तेज़, योग ऊपर तीन मुख्य कारण:
1. कमी की आपूर्ति: देय से द प्रभाव का महामारी, कई बीडीओ कारखानों में विदेशी देश है रुका कामका, तो वे खरीद कच्चा सामग्री से मेरा देश और खरीद पीटीएमईजी और अन्य उत्पाद. विदेश आदेश है बढ़ा, और घरेलू बीडीओ पौधे हैं बीन निलंबित के लिए रखरखाव एक बाद दूसरे. पर द शुरुआत का 2021, कई सेट का उपकरणों थे शट नीचे के लिए रखरखाव या प्रतिस्थापन का उत्प्रेरक, और फिर वे थे असमर्थ से उत्पादन. में जोड़, चूंकि जनवरी, दे कारण से नया मुकुट महामारी में कुछ क्षेत्र, रसद और परिवहन हैं प्रतिबंधित और माल दर है बढ़ाया, परिणाम में धीमा वितरण का आदेश. As a परिणाम, आपूर्ति का BDO में मेरा देश is में लघु आपूर्ति, समर्थन द वृद्धि में कीमतें।
2. अच्छा मांग: बाद अक्टूबर 2020, कपड़ा मांग है उठाया अप, और द उत्पादन और बिक्री का पीटीएमईजी-स्पैन्डेक्स उद्योग चेन है बढ़ गया है लगातार. अस सबसे बड़ा डाउनस्ट्री उद्योग का बीडीओ%2सी पीटीएमईजी है भी बढ़ा इसकी खपत का कच्चा सामग्री. अन्य डाउनस्ट्री उद्योग है भी विकसित सौम्य और मांग बढ़ी हुई है। पर द समान समय%2सी द अंधेरा घोड़ा का द डाउनस्ट्री%2सी द पीबीएटी उद्योग%2सी है बीन संचालित द्वारा राष्ट्रीय प्लास्टिक प्रतिबंध नीति और मांग है उछाल%2सी इस प्रकार बढ़ना क्षमता से पचाना कच्चा सामग्री।
3. The bidding price rises: In September 2020, the domestic BDO industry began to implement an online bidding model, which is relatively high after each bidding, which boosts the confidence of traders in the industry. In a market that is already in short supply, industry bidding prices have pushed up the market all the way, while also stimulating downstream buying mentality to fill the market. The price of BDO rose sharply, which in turn led to a substantial increase in the entire industrial chain. Driven by BDO, the main raw material of spandex, PTMEG, has a steady and upward trend. The pure MDI market is gradually entering the market with terminal demand, and the supply gap is still obvious. Pure MDI Spring Festival After that, it also ushered in a sharp rise. As of March 3, 2021, PTMEG rose by RMB 20,200/ton, or 102%, during the year, and pure MDI rose by RMB 7,000/ton, or 32.56%, during the year. With strong cost support, the price of spandex has gradually risen to a high level.
4. आयात और निर्यात विश्लेषण
From January to May of 2021, the total import of spandex is 11,500 tons, an वृद्धि of 29.10% अधिक 2020 आयात और an वृद्धि of 6.85% अधिक 2019. से जनवरी से मई का 2021, the total export of spandex is 40,500 tons, an वृद्धि of 58.27% अधिक 2020 निर्यात और एक वृद्धि का 47.54% अधिक 2019. में द पहला आधा का 2021, among China's नायलॉन फिलामेंट निर्यात देश, the शीर्ष तीन देश थे तुर्की, ब्राजील, और मिस्र. तुर्की's export accounted for a अपेक्षाकृत बड़ा भाग, लेखा for 28.11% का the total export. ब्राजील खाता for 6.3%, और 90 स्पैन्डेक्स निर्यात देश, of which the top ten exporting countries accounted for 73.5%.
Five, इन्वेंटरी डेटा विश्लेषण
In 2021, the spandex factory inventory will drop from 17 days at the beginning of the year to around 10 days, which is 37 days less than the same period in 2020. In 2021, the inventory of spandex factories continued to decline. Until the end of June, the industry reached a low level during the year, mostly coarse denier inventories. The supply of fine denier is in short supply. Short-term spandex is supported by weaving demand, and inventory levels are expected to remain low. In 2021, spandex inventory remained relatively low compared to the same period in recent years. Since October last year, terminal orders for footwear and home textiles have been placed in large quantities, weaving operations have reached a historical high, and the demand for raw material stocking once climbed. Most spandex is in stock, and the inventory at the beginning of the year is relatively low In the first half of the year, the overall downstream demand for spandex remained stable. Even if downstream users buy as they use it, the inventory of spandex enterprises remains low under high load.
6. लाभ विश्लेषण से जनवरी से जून 2021
From January to June 2021, the price of spandex has risen rapidly, और the समग्र लाभप्रदता है स्वीकार्य. लेना 40D as an उदाहरण, the औसत नकद प्रवाह में द पहला आधा का वर्ष था 13,735 युआन/TON, A वर्ष-दर-वर्ष वृद्धि का 947%. लाभ बढ़ा महान. बाद वसंत त्योहार, the उच्च स्तर का कच्चा सामग्री गिर गया. स्पैन्डेक्स कीमतें रह उच्च और कीमतें गुलाब फिर से में जून. वास्तविक बाजार चर्चा मई कम स्तर. हालांकि%2सी द लाभप्रदता का स्पैन्डेक्स में पहला आधा का वर्ष है निष्पक्ष अच्छा%2सी दूर अधिक द स्तर का समान अवधि अंतिम वर्ष. रुझान विश्लेषण और पूर्वानुमान से जुलाई से दिसंबर 2021
The overall start of spandex has remained at a high level, and the output has maintained a relatively high position in recent years under the support of demand. In 2021, new production capacity will be limited, mostly concentrated in the second half of the year. Follow-up supply may ease slightly. With the release of new production capacity, the supply volume tends to increase. Global fiber terminal consumption is steadily recovering from the bottom of the epidemic. From January to May, the retail sales of shoes, hats and knitting textiles reached 555.22 billion yuan, an increase of 37.45% year-on-year in 2020 and an increase of 1.74% year-on-year. Domestic clothing retail sales from January to May increased by 34% year-on-year in 2020 and 5.16% from 2019. In the second half of the year, foreign countries are facing various festivals such as Thanksgiving and Christmas. There are also large-scale double eleven events in China. Therefore, both domestic and foreign sales are expected to be positive, and against the background of low inventory in the domestic and overseas chemical fiber industry chains, The impact of the follow-up epidemic will gradually weaken, terminal demand is expected to improve significantly, and it will bring demand for replenishment of the global fiber industry chain. Spandex's recent cost level has recently recovered, and the market outlook is likely to be supported. Under the condition that downstream demand is expected to be good, spandex is expected to maintain a high economic cycle, and the demand side promotes a slight increase in superimposed supply. The spandex market may continue to run at a high level in the second half of this year. There are many concerns in the market that the market will fall for a long time, but at present, due to the short stocking cycle of spandex fine denier products, the low-priced spandex in the early stage is mostly exhausted. In the future, the factory is driven by low inventory, and the price is still rising slightly. It is expected that the new capacity is limited and the market just needs to be maintained. The 40D spandex market is expected to hit 80,000 yuan/ton or above in the second half of the year.
